服務(wù)貿(mào)易和出口競(jìng)爭(zhēng)力一個(gè)實(shí)證分析【外文翻譯】

1、<p><b>　　外文翻譯</b></p><p><b>　　原文</b></p><p>　　Service Trade and Export Competitiveness: An Empirical Analysis</p><p>　　Material Source: http://www4.fe.u

2、c.pt/eefs/abstracts/nair-54.pdf </p><p>　　Author:Joy Mazumdar</p><p>　　Liberalization of trade in services has been an ongoing part of the World Trade Organization's agenda in recent years u

3、nder the auspices of the General Agreement on Trade in Services (GATS). Producer services such as transportation, telecommunications, management consulting, engineering consulting, banking, insurance, marketing and finan

4、cial services have all become increasingly important both in their role in the domestic economy and in international trade. Liberalization of trade in services w</p><p>　　This paper examines whether service

5、trade contributes to increased trade in manufactured goods. One argument put forth for liberalizing service trade is that service imports may be necessary, especially for developing countries, to enhance their internatio

6、nal competitiveness and boost exports (see, for example, Hoekman and Braga (1997), OECD). Markusen et al. (2000) note that "..imported services may provide crucial missing inputs which allow a country to produce and

7、 export goods in which the co</p><p>　　There are numerous other examples illustrating the role of foreign services in facilitating trade in goods. DHL Express is the largest international air express service

8、s provider in India. DHL's Worldwide Medical Express (WMX) range of temperature-controlled logistics solutions for the pharmaceutical and life sciences industries in India facilitates India's efforts to become a

9、global outsourcing hub for the pharmaceutical industry and provides a single window that takes care of everything from p</p><p>　　There are several possible mechanisms through which service imports could fac

10、ilitate exports. Services could be an input into production so that service imports could increase both the output and export of goods. They could also reduce transportation costs/ information costs and therefore increas

11、e exports at any given level of output. Services may also facilitate fragmentation of production and hence lead to international outsourcing activities. Finally, country-specific services may be needed t</p><p

12、>　　The key questions we address in this paper are the following: Do service imports indeed help in increasing manufactured goods exports? Are there certain types of services that facilitate exports more than others? D

13、o service imports have a greater role in facilitating trade in developing countries than in developed countries? Our aim is to see whether service imports have an impact on exports at the economy wide level. Although it

14、would be ideal to have data on service exports from all countries,</p><p>　　There is a substantial theoretical literature incorporating the effects of producer services in international trade models. Several

15、 models treat producer services as intermediate inputs produced with constant returns to scale, and are based on the Ricardo-Viner framework (Jones and Ruane, 1990) or the Heckscher-Olin framework (Hirsch, 1989; Melvin,

16、1989; Burgess, 1990; Djajic and Kierskowski, 1989). Other models (Markusen 1989; Francois, 1990; Ishikawa 1992; Marrewijck et. Al 1996, 1997; Markus</p><p>　　Since services are inputs into production the re

17、lation between service trade and goods trade is closely linked to the one that looks at the connection between factor mobility and goods trade (see Mundell(1957), Markusen (1983), Svennson (1984) and Markusen and Svensso

18、n (1985)). Mundell (1957) pointed out that trade in factors and trade in goods can be substitutes. However, Markusen (1983) shows how trade in factors and goods can be complements when goods trade is not based on factor

19、 endowments.</p><p>　　Other papers have emphasized the role of services in reducing transaction costs. In Jones and Kierzkowski (1990), increasing returns and advantages from specialization encourage firms t

20、o fragment the production process into production blocks that are located in different countries. Services (such as administration, transportation and financial services) are required to connect and coordinate such produ

21、ction blocks. Service trade therefore makes such fragmentation possible and leads to increased </p><p>　　The service and goods trade link that we seek to capture in this paper is the one in which services im

22、ports are an input in the production of goods. Trade in this framework will be due to differentiated goods instead of endowments and so, as Markusen (1983) points out, imports of service inputs can increase exports. The

23、model can be interpreted, under certain conditions, as one in which service imports can reduce the costs of doing trade (such as transportation and communication) as well (see Ap</p><p>　　The framework that

24、we use for estimating the impact of service imports on goods exports is linked to two strands of the empirical literature in international trade. The first one relates sectoral output to factor endowments (e.g., Harrigan

25、 (1995b), Bernstein and Weinstein (2002)). The second is the large literature on estimating gravity equations that relate exports to GDP of trading countries. Our paper is linked to papers that relate sectoral exports to

26、 either country GDP or sectoral output (s</p><p>　　Our key results indicate that, on average, service imports have a significant effect on exports in the case of developing countries but not in the case of i

27、ndustrialized nations. The positive impact is significant in most cases for business and telecom. There is not much evidence that access to transport services helps exports. Financial services are consistently negative

28、, and significant in most cases, perhaps because of the Rybczynski type effect that could occur if these services are used m</p><p>　　In recent years, there have been ongoing multilateral negotiations regard

29、ing the liberalization of international trade in services such as transportation, management consulting, engineering consulting, banking, insurance, marketing and finance. Apart from the direct gains experienced by the s

30、ervice industries, it has been argued that liberalization of service trade may facilitate goods trade among countries. We develop a theoretical model analyzing the impact of trade in services on manufactured</p>&

31、lt;p>　　Our results indicate that service imports in general are more important for developing countries compared to industrialized nations in terms of providing essential inputs required for either production or for t

32、he trading process itself. Access to business and telecommunication services helps exports. The availability of transportations services does not necessarily stimulate exports. Financial services seem to have a negative

33、effect on exports. This could be because they are used more intensivel</p><p>　　An important caveat to keep in mind is that these results are based on data on cross border trade in services only and does not

34、 include services provided through affiliates. The provision of services through affiliates may be particularly important for financial services. So, it is possible that the negative effect of financial services may disa

35、ppear once we take this mode of service provision into account. One should also keep in mind that financial services import data does not include foreign</p><p>　　Our analysis has important policy implicatio

36、ns for trade negotiations: even if a country is hesitant to liberalize all types of service trade, it may be worthwhile to liberalize certain kinds of service trade that facilitate greater exports. The positive impact o

37、f certain types of services, such as telecommunication and business, on manufactured goods trade provides a politically persuasive argument for liberalizing service trade in these areas. </p><p><b>　　

38、譯文</b></p><p>　　服務(wù)貿(mào)易和出口競(jìng)爭(zhēng)力：一個(gè)實(shí)證分析</p><p>　　資料來(lái)源: http://www4.fe.uc.pt/eefs/abstracts/nair-54.pdf </p><p>　　作者：Joy Mazumdar</p><p>　　服務(wù)貿(mào)易自由化已是近年來(lái)世界貿(mào)易組織根據(jù)服務(wù)貿(mào)易總

39、協(xié)定（GATS）的議程的一部分。如無(wú)論是在其國(guó)內(nèi)經(jīng)濟(jì)中的作用和國(guó)際貿(mào)易,交通、電信、管理咨詢、工程咨詢、銀行、保險(xiǎn)、營(yíng)銷和金融服務(wù)工商業(yè)支援服務(wù)，都變得越來(lái)越重要。服務(wù)貿(mào)易自由化成為世貿(mào)組織議程的一部分是在其列為增加期望，服務(wù)貿(mào)易將導(dǎo)致嚴(yán)重的福利收益的基礎(chǔ)上。這些收益預(yù)期產(chǎn)生是在生產(chǎn)服務(wù)提供了必要的投入，并滿足消費(fèi)的事實(shí)上，如運(yùn)輸和電信服務(wù)。</p><p>　　本文探討是否有助于提高制成品貿(mào)易中的服務(wù)貿(mào)易。一個(gè)

40、論點(diǎn)提出了服務(wù)貿(mào)易自由化對(duì)服務(wù)進(jìn)口可能是必要的，特別是對(duì)發(fā)展中國(guó)家，用以提高其國(guó)際競(jìng)爭(zhēng)力和擴(kuò)大出口（如，Hoekman和Braga（1997年）所述，經(jīng)合組織）。Markusen等（2000）指出，“.. 服務(wù)進(jìn)口可能提供重要的投入，在自然比較優(yōu)勢(shì)情況下允許一個(gè)國(guó)家生產(chǎn)和出口在該國(guó)的商品，當(dāng)然短缺資源輸入除外。這存在著龐大的剩余價(jià)值潛力。如，阿拉伯海灣地區(qū)可能有巨大的石油供應(yīng)，但專業(yè)知識(shí)，才能將它推向市場(chǎng)。幾百億美元的外國(guó)專才可能有一個(gè)

41、價(jià)值數(shù)十億美元的回報(bào)。”</p><p>　　有許多說(shuō)明了外國(guó)服務(wù)在促進(jìn)貨物貿(mào)易中的作用的其他例子。 DHL快遞公司是印度全球最大的國(guó)際航空快遞服務(wù)提供商。 DHL的全球醫(yī)療快遞（WMX）為在印度的努力使印度成為了制藥行業(yè)的全球外包中心，它提供了一個(gè)制藥和生命科學(xué)等行業(yè)的溫度控制的物流解決方案，從包裝開(kāi)始，照顧一切文件，跟蹤運(yùn)輸，在規(guī)定的溫度限制下運(yùn)輸和分布貨物.Hitachi有限公司使用的仍然是UPS供應(yīng)鏈解決

42、方案的服務(wù)，以實(shí)施一項(xiàng)日立環(huán)球存儲(chǔ)技術(shù)公司（GST）的全球分銷系統(tǒng)。這有助于日立“獲得一個(gè)單一，整合，運(yùn)輸，報(bào)關(guān)，分撥和直接交付可伸縮的來(lái)源，他們還挖掘?qū)I(yè)技術(shù)和設(shè)計(jì)，以提高速度和靈活性的系統(tǒng)?！?國(guó)際物流和保證組織專家Hortens Vasquez，在日立簡(jiǎn)潔地概括了UPS發(fā)揮的重要作用時(shí)，表示，“UPS供應(yīng)鏈解決方案，其服務(wù)不斷更新使日立全球分銷系統(tǒng)可以專注于他們做的最好的——共建廣泛產(chǎn)品組合的世界級(jí)存儲(chǔ)技術(shù)的產(chǎn)品?！百Y料定量使用C

43、GE模型分析，發(fā)現(xiàn)一些證據(jù)表明，服務(wù)貿(mào)易自由化對(duì)出口產(chǎn)生很大的影響（羅賓遜等人（1999））。</p><p>　　有幾種可能的機(jī)制，使服務(wù)進(jìn)口可以促進(jìn)出口。服務(wù)可以是一到生產(chǎn)輸入，這樣既可以增加服務(wù)進(jìn)口的產(chǎn)量和出口貨物，還可以降低運(yùn)輸成本/信息成本，從而增加在任何給定產(chǎn)品的出口產(chǎn)出水平。服務(wù)也可能促進(jìn)生產(chǎn)分散，從而導(dǎo)致國(guó)際外包活動(dòng)。最后，國(guó)家特定的服務(wù)可能需要出口到一個(gè)特定國(guó)家，如美國(guó)服務(wù)，其廣告和法律服務(wù)可能

44、需要出售到美國(guó)市場(chǎng)。</p><p>　　本文中的關(guān)鍵問(wèn)題是：做服務(wù)確實(shí)有助于增加制成品出口？是否有某些類型的服務(wù)促進(jìn)出口比他國(guó)多？服務(wù)進(jìn)口在促進(jìn)發(fā)展中國(guó)家貿(mào)易比國(guó)家中起更大的作用？我們的宗旨是在經(jīng)濟(jì)層面上服務(wù)進(jìn)口是否會(huì)對(duì)出口造成影響。鑒于取得來(lái)自所有國(guó)家的服務(wù)出口數(shù)據(jù)很難，我們專注于美國(guó)的服務(wù)出口和美國(guó)商品的限制進(jìn)口的數(shù)據(jù)。</p><p>　　有大量的理論文獻(xiàn)提出分析生產(chǎn)性服務(wù)業(yè)影響的

45、國(guó)際貿(mào)易模型。作為中間的幾個(gè)模型，將生產(chǎn)性服務(wù)業(yè)，生產(chǎn)規(guī)模的不斷投入與回報(bào)，并根據(jù)Ricardo-Viner模型(Jones and Ruane, 1990) 或Heckscher-Olin 模型(Hirsch, 1989; Melvin, 1989; Burgess, 1990; Djajic and Kierskowski, 1989)及其他模型 (Markusen 1989; Francois, 1990; Ishikawa 19

46、92; Marrewijck et. Al 1996, 1997; Markusen et. al 2000)，分析規(guī)模報(bào)酬遞增的生產(chǎn)者服務(wù)業(yè)。</p><p>　　由于服務(wù)投入到生產(chǎn)之間的服務(wù)貿(mào)易和貨物貿(mào)易的關(guān)系是緊密相連的，并期待在流動(dòng)性因素之間的連接貨物貿(mào)易 (見(jiàn)Mundell(1957), Markusen (1983), Svennson (1984) and Markusen and Svensson

47、 (1985))。Mundell（1957）指出，在貨物貿(mào)易中的因素及貿(mào)易可以替代。然而，Markusen（1983）展示了這些因素和貨物貿(mào)易如何在貨物貿(mào)易方面補(bǔ)充而不是以要素稟賦為基礎(chǔ)。另一方面，Markusen（1988）展示了服務(wù)投入的自由貿(mào)易如何在各國(guó)最終產(chǎn)品的價(jià)格相等下保持國(guó)家產(chǎn)品貿(mào)易的均衡。</p><p>　　其他文件都強(qiáng)調(diào)在降低交易成本中服務(wù)的作用。在Jones和 Kierzkowski（1990

48、），增加收益和專業(yè)化優(yōu)勢(shì)，鼓勵(lì)位于不同的國(guó)家的企業(yè)投入生產(chǎn)片段。服務(wù)（如管理，運(yùn)輸和金融服務(wù)）需要連接和協(xié)調(diào)等生產(chǎn)區(qū)塊。服務(wù)貿(mào)易有可能因此使這種區(qū)塊分裂，并導(dǎo)致中間產(chǎn)品的貿(mào)易增加。Deardorff （2000）研究的貿(mào)易服務(wù)，他描述為“服務(wù)的需求所引致的直接貿(mào)易。”許多服務(wù)在促進(jìn)貨物和（比自己除外）其他服務(wù)貿(mào)易中至關(guān)重要。最明顯的例子是，需要運(yùn)輸服務(wù)貿(mào)易的貨物。減少服務(wù)貿(mào)易的貿(mào)易壁壘，像任何其他中間投入一樣，降低成本提供這些服務(wù)，可以

49、刺激最終產(chǎn)品的貿(mào)易。</p><p>　　服務(wù)和貨物貿(mào)易的聯(lián)系，在本文中假設(shè)服務(wù)進(jìn)口是商品生產(chǎn)投入。在這個(gè)框架內(nèi)的貿(mào)易是等稟賦的而不是有區(qū)別的商品，如Markusen（1983）指出，服務(wù)輸入進(jìn)口可能增加出口。該模型可以解釋，在一定條件下，可以降低進(jìn)口哪些服務(wù)貿(mào)易（如運(yùn)輸和通訊），以及其費(fèi)用（見(jiàn)附件3）的同時(shí)可以增加服務(wù)進(jìn)口貨物和出口上的輸出。我們的貿(mào)易品部門都被看作是壟斷競(jìng)爭(zhēng)，我們假設(shè)所有的服務(wù)都是進(jìn)口的，而且

50、提供在進(jìn)口扭曲情況下的世界價(jià)格。我們注意到，雖然我們預(yù)期進(jìn)口生產(chǎn)性服務(wù)業(yè)將刺激一個(gè)國(guó)家的商品出口，但如果進(jìn)口的服務(wù)部門主要是在非貿(mào)易部門，這可能不會(huì)發(fā)生。為結(jié)合這種可能性，在均使用進(jìn)口的投入服務(wù)情況下，將貿(mào)易與非貿(mào)易因素考慮進(jìn)模型。這導(dǎo)致的可能性，實(shí)際上可能會(huì)降低服務(wù)進(jìn)口貨物的出口。這是由于Rybczynski類型的影響而發(fā)生，由于貿(mào)易部門的服務(wù)吸引資源流入，遠(yuǎn)離貿(mào)易部門，并減少了后者的大小。</p><p>　

51、　我們使用的框架，估計(jì)服務(wù)進(jìn)口與出口是兩個(gè)在國(guó)際貿(mào)易貨物的實(shí)證文獻(xiàn)股的影響。第一項(xiàng)是關(guān)于要素稟賦部門產(chǎn)出（如Harrigan（1995年），Bernstein和Weinstein（2002））。第二個(gè)是關(guān)于引力方程，涉及國(guó)家的出口貿(mào)易對(duì)國(guó)內(nèi)生產(chǎn)總值。本文鏈接到本文中所提的有關(guān)這兩個(gè)國(guó)家國(guó)內(nèi)生產(chǎn)總值或部門產(chǎn)出（見(jiàn)Harrigan（1996年），F(xiàn)eenstra（2001年）等）。在我們的框架，涉及到我們國(guó)家的生產(chǎn)要素部門的出口，我們將其作

52、為解釋變量，而不是部門的產(chǎn)出（或國(guó)內(nèi)生產(chǎn)總值），因?yàn)槲覀冋趯ふ也块T產(chǎn)出的決定因素，其中包括要素稟賦和服務(wù)。但是，我們重點(diǎn)的決定因素，不是各種制造行業(yè)之間的差別，而是國(guó)家制造業(yè)與經(jīng)濟(jì)其他行業(yè)（主要非貿(mào)易的服務(wù)部門和農(nóng)業(yè)部門）的要素稟賦上的差異。在我們的框架，服務(wù)進(jìn)口像要素稟賦，當(dāng)然不像我們通常假設(shè)的要素稟賦和取決于其中對(duì)服務(wù)貿(mào)易的限制。</p><p>　　我們的主要結(jié)果表明，平均而言，發(fā)展中國(guó)家服務(wù)進(jìn)口對(duì)出口的

53、國(guó)家案件發(fā)展有顯著影響，但不是在工業(yè)化國(guó)家。其積極影響在大多數(shù)情況下，電信業(yè)務(wù)具有重要意義。沒(méi)有多少證據(jù)表明，便利的運(yùn)輸服務(wù)會(huì)幫助出口，在大多數(shù)情況下金融服務(wù)業(yè)是一貫消極，也許是因?yàn)镽ybczynski類型的影響，如果使用這些服務(wù)的行業(yè)比其他制造業(yè)居多，這可能發(fā)生。我們的研究結(jié)果支持了這一概念，在一般情況下，服務(wù)和貨物貿(mào)易是補(bǔ)充，而不是替代品。</p><p>　　近年來(lái)，先后有進(jìn)行中的有關(guān)國(guó)際貿(mào)易自由化的多邊談

54、判，如運(yùn)輸，管理咨詢，工程咨詢，銀行，保險(xiǎn)，營(yíng)銷和金融服務(wù)。除了服務(wù)行業(yè)經(jīng)驗(yàn)豐富而導(dǎo)致的直接收益，服務(wù)貿(mào)易自由化可能會(huì)促進(jìn)各國(guó)之間的貨物貿(mào)易。我們開(kāi)發(fā)的理論模型分析了貿(mào)易制成品貿(mào)易服務(wù)的影響，并測(cè)試結(jié)果經(jīng)驗(yàn)。理論模型預(yù)測(cè)認(rèn)為，整體（國(guó)家一級(jí)）對(duì)可貿(mào)易部門的出口服務(wù)，進(jìn)口產(chǎn)品的影響可正可負(fù)。該標(biāo)志將取決于是否使用服務(wù)的部門或多或少與非貿(mào)易部門相比。如果服務(wù)貿(mào)易部門中使用更深入的服務(wù)進(jìn)口產(chǎn)品，其影響肯定會(huì)有積極的；如果采用進(jìn)口服務(wù)貿(mào)易部門相

55、比非貿(mào)易部門加緊則服務(wù)進(jìn)口產(chǎn)品的影響是模糊的；如果進(jìn)口服務(wù)的非貿(mào)易部門相比于貿(mào)易部門是相當(dāng)高的強(qiáng)度，其影響可能是負(fù)面的。</p><p>　　我們的研究結(jié)果表明，一般的服務(wù)更適用于發(fā)展中國(guó)家的進(jìn)口相比于無(wú)論是在提供生產(chǎn)或交易過(guò)程中本身所需要的基本投入的工業(yè)化國(guó)家的國(guó)家重要方面。結(jié)合商品和電信服務(wù)有助于出口，運(yùn)輸服務(wù)的供應(yīng)情況并不一定刺激出口，而金融服務(wù)似乎已經(jīng)對(duì)出口產(chǎn)生負(fù)面影響，這可能是因?yàn)樗鼈冊(cè)诎l(fā)展中國(guó)家更深入

56、地被用在非貿(mào)易部門。</p><p>　　一個(gè)重要且要記住的警告是，這些結(jié)果是基于對(duì)跨境服務(wù)貿(mào)易的數(shù)據(jù)，并不包括通過(guò)分支機(jī)構(gòu)提供的服務(wù)。該聯(lián)營(yíng)公司提供的服務(wù)，對(duì)金融服務(wù)可能特別重要。因此，一旦我們考慮到這種服務(wù)提供模式，它有可能造成的對(duì)金融服務(wù)的負(fù)面影響可能會(huì)消失。人們還應(yīng)該牢記，金融服務(wù)的進(jìn)口數(shù)據(jù)不包括外國(guó)資本的流入。因此，它是可能的，后者是與商品出口呈正相關(guān)，而前者則不是。我們的研究結(jié)果支持了這一概念，在一般