餐飲旅游行業(yè)2019年投資策略報告把握確定性成長標的，關注邊際改善結構性機會

1、目錄1.經濟增速換擋可選消費承壓...................................................................51.1經濟增速換擋消費地位凸顯.............................................................51.2餐飲需求相對旺盛部分可選消費承壓........................................

2、..............61.3低線消費崛起，需求不斷釋放.............................................................72.餐飲旅游行業(yè)之細分子板塊....................................................................92.1出境游一線需求或飽和，二線接棒..........................

3、...............................92.2自然景區(qū)關注邊際改善，旅游演藝需求繼續(xù)釋放............................................102.3政策引導境外消費回流，國內免稅市場持續(xù)收益............................................122.3.1高價差抑制國內奢侈品消費需求.............................

4、.......................122.3.2免稅行業(yè)競爭格局基本穩(wěn)定，中國國旅成為絕對霸主..................................132.3.3離島免稅維持較高增速，免稅額迎來第三次調整......................................142.4中高端酒店崛起帶動平均房價，經濟下行環(huán)境下增速承壓....................................1

5、62.4.1經濟型酒店步入成熟期，中端酒店崛起..............................................162.4.2行業(yè)結構調整助力企業(yè)經營持續(xù)改善................................................172.4.3經濟增速換擋，行業(yè)增速下滑......................................................193.堅定

6、持有行業(yè)龍頭把握邊際改善機會..........................................................204.風險提示...................................................................................21表4：海南離島免稅政策調整情況........................................

7、................................................................15表5：2017年中國經濟型連鎖酒店品牌規(guī)模10強................................................................................17表6：CS餐飲旅游行業(yè)內個股漲跌幅...............................