通信行業(yè)2019投資策略報(bào)告擁抱5g主題，兼顧云服務(wù)確定性成長(zhǎng)

1、有關(guān)分析師的申明，見本報(bào)告最后部分。其他重要信息披露見分目錄一、行情回顧與展望......................................................................................51.1板塊行情回顧：行業(yè)整體低迷，子版塊表現(xiàn)分化................................51.2板塊重大事件回顧..........................

2、................................61.32019年行業(yè)投資主線梳理：關(guān)注5G投資、兼顧云服務(wù)..........................7二、以史為鏡：復(fù)盤3G4G時(shí)代通信行業(yè)投資機(jī)會(huì).......................................72.1估值先行回升，發(fā)牌當(dāng)年收益率顯著..........................................72.2網(wǎng)絡(luò)投

3、資產(chǎn)業(yè)鏈?zhǔn)崂砑巴顿Y時(shí)序研究.........................................10三、5G投資主線：設(shè)備商受益最大，關(guān)注天線和光模塊機(jī)會(huì)......................123.15G標(biāo)準(zhǔn)如期推進(jìn)，商用進(jìn)展沒(méi)有懸念........................................123.1.1標(biāo)準(zhǔn)已完成凍結(jié).......................................

4、..................123.1.2產(chǎn)業(yè)鏈準(zhǔn)備就緒.........................................................133.1.3國(guó)內(nèi)商用進(jìn)展有序.......................................................143.2資本支出走出低谷，5G建設(shè)進(jìn)度趨于平穩(wěn)長(zhǎng)期，投資收益更為持續(xù)..............153.35G受益子版塊

5、：關(guān)注設(shè)備商，天饋及光模塊領(lǐng)域投資機(jī)會(huì)......................173.3.1主設(shè)備領(lǐng)域：受益程度大，確定性強(qiáng)，行業(yè)格局好...........................173.3.2天饋領(lǐng)域：具備天饋一體化能力以及與設(shè)備商深度合作企業(yè)具有競(jìng)爭(zhēng)優(yōu)勢(shì).......193.3.3光模塊領(lǐng)域：5G和數(shù)通拉動(dòng)需求確定，板塊景氣延續(xù)性高....................22四、云服務(wù)投資主線：行業(yè)景氣度高，關(guān)注IDC

6、確定性成長(zhǎng)........................25五、投資建議...............................................................................................296.1基站設(shè)備：中興通訊(000063，未評(píng)級(jí))—5G受益確定性強(qiáng)，邊際改善大.........296.2傳輸設(shè)備：烽火通信(600498，未評(píng)級(jí))—光通信龍頭，傳輸設(shè)備受

7、益確定性強(qiáng).....306.3天饋：通宇通訊(002792，未評(píng)級(jí))—競(jìng)爭(zhēng)優(yōu)勢(shì)明顯，業(yè)績(jī)彈性高.................306.4光模塊：光迅科技(002281，增持)—受益承載網(wǎng)重構(gòu)，光模塊需求持續(xù)景氣.......316.5IDC：光環(huán)新網(wǎng)(300383，未評(píng)級(jí))—主業(yè)成長(zhǎng)動(dòng)力充足，觸云轉(zhuǎn)型行業(yè)典范........316.6細(xì)分領(lǐng)域龍頭：億聯(lián)網(wǎng)絡(luò)(300628，增持)—傳統(tǒng)主業(yè)支撐短期業(yè)績(jī)，視頻業(yè)務(wù)打開長(zhǎng)期成長(zhǎng)空間.....

8、...............................................................31風(fēng)險(xiǎn)提示......................................................................................................33附錄.............................................

9、................................................................34有關(guān)分析師的申明，見本報(bào)告最后部分。其他重要信息披露見分圖35：2017年?duì)I收前10中立IDC格局.....................................................................................27圖36：世紀(jì)互聯(lián)機(jī)柜平均出租價(jià)格..

10、...........................................................................................28圖37：2015年SIP市場(chǎng)份額按銷售量口徑比較.........................................................................32圖38：2015年SIP市場(chǎng)份額按銷售金額口徑比較...

11、...................................................................32表1：3G4G發(fā)牌背景比較......................................................................................................................7表2：通信設(shè)備指數(shù)年收益率比較....

12、.............................................................................................8表3：子版塊受益時(shí)序及相關(guān)公司業(yè)績(jī)彈性與持續(xù)性分析...........................................................11表4：3.5GHz和4.9GHz產(chǎn)業(yè)鏈技術(shù)儲(chǔ)備.................

13、..........................................................................14表5：2019年基站建設(shè)對(duì)資本支出增速影響情景分析.................................................................16表6：未來(lái)運(yùn)營(yíng)商資本開支更加平穩(wěn)....................................

14、........................................................16表7：天線原材料成本拆分..........................................................................................................20表8：濾波器廠商代表企業(yè)..............................

15、............................................................................21表9：天線廠商與設(shè)備商合作情況...............................................................................................22表10：5G宏基站光模塊需求測(cè)算..............

16、.................................................................................23表11：IDC服務(wù)商分類...............................................................................................................27表12：?jiǎn)螖?shù)據(jù)中心IRR

17、測(cè)算（萬(wàn)元）.........................................................................................28表13：IDC重點(diǎn)公司運(yùn)營(yíng)情況梳理.............................................................................................29表14：視頻會(huì)議領(lǐng)域玩